Staffing Sales – have we reached the bottom?

Eric Gregg — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 05:29:43 +0000

Inavero collects and analyzes the quarterly survey for ASA, and I will tell you that for my money, it is one of, if not THE most reliable source for tracking revenue, payroll and employment quarter over quarter. Here’s a summary of the data.

The staffing industry employed nearly 800,000 fewer people in the first quarter compared to the same time period in 2008, a 28% decline.
Industry sales declined in a similar pattern, declining nearly $5 billion, or 27%.

Why then, do I feel this burden lifting? This feeling I have – not quite optimism, not completely relief, but with remnants of both – it started about a month ago, and it is (slowly) getting stronger each day. We’re hearing from our clients, and seeing evidence from my other favorite indicator, ASA’s weekly staffing index, that we are at least testing a bottom.

The questions I am getting now are more around what I think the recovery will look like (sharp, or gradual), and when I think we’ll start to pull the nose of the plane back up, now that it has leveled. I believe we will be down in this trough throughout the summer, but I think staffing will start to maintain significant week-over-week growth starting in early August. When it happens, I am expecting it to be more gradual than historical figures would suggest (which are dramatic), but less gradual than following 2001 where I believe massive productivity gains made through technology improvements slowed the need for staffing as we emerged from the recession.

What do you think? Are we at a bottom? When will we start to emerge? Will staffing grow sharply or gradually during the recovery? Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Job losses ease slightly – what does it mean for staffing

Eric Gregg — Sat, 09 May 2009 05:27:24 +0000

Very interesting numbers coming out of BLS today. Click here for the full release. Here it is in a nutshell. The U.S. still lost a bucket of jobs this last month (nearly 540,000) and unemployment is at 8.9% (up from 8.4%), but the silver lining is that compared to the losses over the previous months (average job losses of over 700,000 per month for the past 4 months).

What does it mean for staffing and recruiting? My take is that we’ve seen the worst of it. We may be walking along the bottom for a while, but I truly think we have found a bottom. Why do I think it? Take a look at the American Staffing Association’s weekly staffing index. The industry took a hard and long fall from the cliff, but seems to be flattening out at the new level over the past 2 to 3 months. When will we start to increase? Not sure, but if you can sustain the level you’re at now for a while, my expectation is that short of any major shocks to the system, the industry will be flat for a bit, and once the ASA index starts to jump, we think it will be sustainable.

What is everyone else experiencing? When do you expect to start back up? Leave your thoughts in the comments section.

Inavero » american staffing association

Staffing Sales – have we reached the bottom?

Job losses ease slightly – what does it mean for staffing