Inavero Blog

Staffing Sales – have we reached the bottom?

Inavero collects and analyzes the quarterly survey for ASA, and I will tell you that for my money, it is one of, if not THE most reliable source for tracking revenue, payroll and employment quarter over quarter. Here’s a summary of the data.

1. The staffing industry employed nearly 800,000 fewer people in the first quarter compared to the same time period in 2008, a 28% decline.
2. Industry sales declined in a similar pattern, declining nearly $5 billion, or 27%.

Why then, do I feel this burden lifting?  This feeling I have – not quite optimism, not completely relief, but with remnants of both – it started about a month ago, and it is (slowly) getting stronger each day.  We’re hearing from our clients, and seeing evidence from my other favorite indicator, ASA’s weekly staffing index, that we are at least testing a bottom.

The questions I am getting now are more around what I think the recovery will look like (sharp, or gradual), and when I think we’ll start to pull the nose of the plane back up, now that it has leveled.  I believe we will be down in this trough throughout the summer, but I think staffing will start to maintain significant week-over-week growth starting in early August.  When it happens, I am expecting it to be more gradual than historical figures would suggest (which are dramatic), but less gradual than following 2001 where I believe massive productivity gains made through technology improvements slowed the need for staffing as we emerged from the recession.

What do you think?  Are we at a bottom?  When will we start to emerge?  Will staffing grow sharply or gradually during the recovery?  Leave your thoughts in the comments.